Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x429a…7745
crypto · 1083 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,220 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,220 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses952 / 130
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1082 / 1083
History coverage63d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 1082 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$703
7 days−$1,278
14 days−$640
30 days−$1,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $173 $0 −$173 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$197 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $180 −$173 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $120 −$16 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $121 −$21 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $214 +$75 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $262 +$159 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $462 −$148 -32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $200 −$112 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $222 +$7 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 11 $260 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 10 $200 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 10 $17 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% −$563
other 17% −$434
world 9% −$138
politics 3% +$7
finance 2% −$1
sports 2% −$89
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $50 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 381 -9.7% -18.3% 77% 27% -27.0%
≤30d 699 -2.6% -11.9% 83% 21% -17.7%
≤90d 1082 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 15% -16.0%
all 1082 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 15% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 15% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 7% -24.0%
15% -27.0% 3% -31.4%
20% -34.1% 2% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 3500 history records