Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4299…c8d8
other · 40 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage296d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $32 +$3 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $68 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $56 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $24 −$3 -13%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $16 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 29 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 27 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 25 $25 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 23 $2 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$2
other 25% −$3
politics 18% −$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $23 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $15 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $14 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $35 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $32 36h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $32 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $32 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $23 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $36 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $37 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $20 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $29 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $36 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $36 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $29 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $33 7d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 84¢ $21 170d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $17 170d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $16 256d
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? SELL No 96¢ $16 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.4% -8.3% 29% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 8 +1.2% -8.4% 25% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 8 +1.2% -8.4% 25% 0% -8.8%
all 39 -1.4% -10.8% 21% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.65 · official $37.65 (match) · 217 history records