Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4297…1789 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$12
other 45% −$13
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 32% -11.5%
≤30d 22 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 32% -11.5%
≤90d 22 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 32% -11.5%
all 22 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 32% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 32% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 27% -20.0%
15% -31.1% 18% -27.7%
20% -37.8% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$8 -57%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -33%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$3 +39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $7 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 3h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $3 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 29h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 29h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 29h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 30h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.29 · official $6.29 (match) · 59 history records