Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4295…0e5d crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-6%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$14
14 days−$33
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -18.1% -25.9% 43% 43% -19.1%
≤30d 44 -27.0% -34.0% 36% 32% -35.8%
≤90d 44 -27.0% -34.0% 36% 32% -35.8%
all 44 -27.0% -34.0% 36% 32% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 32% -35.8%
10% -40.3% 25% -41.9%
15% -46.0% 18% -47.5%
20% -51.3% 14% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$9 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$23 +434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $18 −$9 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 01 $14 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$5 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.93 · official $6.54 · 120 history records