trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +17.7% | +6.5% | 75% | 75% | -45.8% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +22.5% | +10.9% | 67% | 53% | -32.0% |
| all | 15 | +22.5% | +10.9% | 67% | 53% | -32.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +10.9% | 53% | -32.0% |
| 10% | +0.3% | 27% | -38.5% |
| 15% | -9.4% | 27% | -44.4% |
| 20% | -18.3% | 27% | -49.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 51¢ | 50¢ | $80 | $79 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1,598 | −$531 | -33% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 01 | $61 | +$12 | +20% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $385 | +$48 | +12% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | May 27 | $31 | +$39 | +127% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 23 | $14 | +$25 | +185% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 13 | $304 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 05 | $28 | −$2 | -7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 05 | $9 | +$11 | +112% |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | May 03 | $6 | −$4 | -79% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? | Apr 30 | $47 | +$53 | +113% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 26 | $17 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Apr 26 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET | Apr 25 | $46 | −$46 | -100% |
| Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? | Apr 19 | $11 | +$2 | +14% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 16 | $8 | +$2 | +22% |