Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4293…792f
crypto · 451 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,517 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,517 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses188 / 617
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)805 / 451
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1432.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 805 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,544
7 days−$1,517
14 days−$1,517
30 days−$1,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) FC Barcelona 62¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-20? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 0 - 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$36
sports 0% −$6
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-54.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 805 -49.6% -54.4% 23% 1% -18.5%
≤30d 805 -49.6% -54.4% 23% 1% -18.5%
≤90d 805 -49.6% -54.4% 23% 1% -18.5%
all 805 -49.6% -54.4% 23% 1% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1432.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.4% 1% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -58.8% 1% -26.3%
15% -62.7% 1% -33.4%
20% -66.4% 1% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.40 · official $20.40 (match) · 3500 history records