Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4292…6fa2
crypto · 2184 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$321 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$416 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$416
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1149 / 650
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1799 / 2184
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day243.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1799 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$443
14 days+$416
30 days+$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 61¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 68¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$12 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1509 +25.0% +13.1% 67% 67% +15.2%
≤30d 1799 +19.4% +8.1% 64% 64% +10.0%
≤90d 1799 +19.4% +8.1% 64% 64% +10.0%
all 1799 +19.4% +8.1% 64% 64% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover243.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.1% 64% +10.0%
10% ← realistic here -2.3% 63% -0.5%
15% -11.7% 58% -10.1%
20% -20.4% 51% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.47 · official $3.64 (match) · 3500 history records