Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4290…fd1a weather 79 markets active 2d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$905 (-7%) realized −$876 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 42L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% +$65
other 23% −$981
world 22% −$4
politics 22% −$5
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -34.6% -40.9% 40% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 47 -10.8% -19.3% 51% 26% -8.8%
≤90d 73 -12.3% -20.6% 47% 18% -16.8%
all 78 -11.5% -20.0% 46% 17% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 17% -15.8%
10% -27.6% 12% -23.9%
15% -34.6% 9% -31.2%
20% -41.0% 6% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$33 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$876
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage104d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 79¢ 55¢ $92 $64 −$29 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 27 $375 +$1 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -75%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2 $0 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -25%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$3 -65%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$3 -53%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 21 $0 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 21 $1 $0 +59%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $48 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $313 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 10 $676 −$3 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $8 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$5 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? Jun 04 $15 +$6 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $137 +$14 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $497 +$30 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$3 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $609 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 +$4 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $192 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $82 +$16 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $64 +$14 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $110 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 25? May 31 $6 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 31 $38 −$27 -70%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 31 $185 +$3 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 31 $116 +$35 +30%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 31 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $382 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $384 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $95 −$71 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $16 +$29 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $343 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $894 +$81 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $4 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $376 39h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $375 42h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.51 · official $63.51 (match) · 588 history records