Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

42 0x4290…af07 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized −$4 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day8.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+6.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+17.7%	+6.5%	67%	67%	-9.4%
≤30d	3	+17.7%	+6.5%	67%	67%	-9.4%
≤90d	3	+17.7%	+6.5%	67%	67%	-9.4%
all	3	+17.7%	+6.5%	67%	67%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.5%	67%	-9.4%
10%	-3.7%	67%	-18.1%
15%	-13.0%	67%	-26.0%
20%	-21.5%	67%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$50 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.0 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$244

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions8

Markets (closed)3 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day8.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	15¢	20¢	$50	$68	+$18 (+37%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$30	$32	+$2 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	15¢	$30	$27	−$3 (-9%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	23¢	24¢	$25	$26	+$1 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-4%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-5%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	38¢	35¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$51	+$49	+97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	4¢	$2	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$2	7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$25	19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	23¢	$26	19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$26	19h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$26	19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	32h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$31	32h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	BUY Yes	38¢	$20	33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	50¢	$51	33h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	15¢	$52	34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	34h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.17 · official $244.17 (match) · 14 history records