Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x428f…fe54 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$4
other 27% −$2
politics 11% −$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% −$2
sports 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -1.5% -10.9% 12% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 17 -1.5% -10.9% 12% 0% -10.8%
all 47 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage489d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $6 $0 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $34 −$3 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $124 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $44 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $2 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $24 −$2 -6%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $9 $0 +5%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 07 $2 $0 -15%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $11 $0 -3%
Will the Jaguars draft Travis Hunter in 2025? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 20 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? Apr 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 06 $12 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 30 $12 $0 +2%
Penn State vs. Indiana Mar 20 $9 +$3 +28%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Feb 26 $8 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21? Feb 21 $3 −$1 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 37h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $24 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $37 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $37 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $35 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.10 · official $39.10 (match) · 132 history records