Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
42 0x428e…cd5f other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-12%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$47
tech 44% +$6
weather 8% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -41.3% -46.9% 0% 0% -46.9%
≤30d 2 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 0% -26.3%
≤90d 3 -1.8% -11.1% 67% 33% -22.8%
all 3 -1.8% -11.1% 67% 33% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 33% -22.8%
10% -19.6% 33% -30.2%
15% -27.4% 0% -36.9%
20% -34.5% 0% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$47 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage63d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $114 −$47 -41%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $106 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 22? Apr 22 $19 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $67 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $114 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $112 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $106 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 22? BUY No 76¢ $19 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records