Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x428c…70a2 crypto 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (267 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,806 (-17%) realized −$8,806 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate60%225W / 152L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day267.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$845
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (267 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -58.1% -62.1% 39% 5% -69.7%
≤30d 377 -35.0% -41.2% 60% 10% -49.1%
≤90d 377 -35.0% -41.2% 60% 10% -49.1%
all 377 -35.0% -41.2% 60% 10% -49.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover267.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.2% 10% -49.1%
10% ← realistic here -46.8% 4% -53.9%
15% -52.0% 3% -58.4%
20% -56.7% 2% -62.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$284 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,806
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses225 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 257
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day267.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
no open positions (140 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $930 −$930 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $841 −$841 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1,899 −$1,899 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jun 15 $2,352 −$2,280 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2,430 −$2,430 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3,535 −$3,535 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $388 −$388 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $170 −$170 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records