Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4286…74e7 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$8
other 32% −$6
politics 27% +$30
tech 2% $0
sports 1% −$21
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% +$2
weather 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 25 -0.9% -10.3% 32% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 42 +24.9% +13.0% 43% 7% -8.7%
all 51 +16.1% +5.0% 41% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 12% -9.3%
10% -5.0% 6% -18.0%
15% -14.2% 6% -25.9%
20% -22.6% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage532d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 +$2 +5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $87 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $34 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $74 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $77 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $74 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $7 −$1 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $42 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $81 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $75 −$3 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $29 −$3 -9%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $425 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $140 +$2 +2%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $191 +$28 +15%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $114 +$2 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $308 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $259 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $8 −$2 -26%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $9 −$4 -40%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $27 $0 +1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Texas State vs. South Alabama Feb 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Austin Peay Feb 14 $4 +$5 +122%
Penguins vs. Flyers Feb 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Feb 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fox News Oval Office inter Feb 05 $15 +$2 +14%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 26 $4 $0 -4%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Jan 22 $17 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $45 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $45 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $45 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $35 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $39 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $43 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $17 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $43 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.06 · official $44.88 (match) · 204 history records