Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4282…930e crypto 438 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,572 (-5%) realized −$1,572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%206W / 232L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day48.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$60
14 days+$10
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,948
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.9% -12.2% 48% 48% +2.6%
≤30d 65 -10.6% -19.2% 49% 48% -8.3%
≤90d 438 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 43% -15.2%
all 438 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 43% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 43% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 39% -23.3%
15% -34.9% 35% -30.7%
20% -41.3% 32% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$59 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses206 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)438 / 438
History coverage55d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 438 Trades
no open positions (169 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $63 +$45 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $64 +$41 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$18 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$13 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $40 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 01 $16 −$13 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 29 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 29 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 29 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2749 history records