Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

42 0x4282…6725 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$68 (+10%) realized +$5 · open +$63

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip

Net edge+64%after slip

Net WR61%break-even

Win rate67%12W / 6L

Drawdown42%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$55

7 days+$71

14 days+$61

30 days+$61

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +61%

net ROI/market (all)+70.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+99.2%	+80.2%	71%	65%	+4.1%
≤30d	18	+88.1%	+70.2%	67%	61%	+2.0%
≤90d	18	+88.1%	+70.2%	67%	61%	+2.0%
all	18	+88.1%	+70.2%	67%	61%	+2.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+70.2%	61%	+2.0%
10%	+53.9%	50%	-7.8%
15%	+39.1%	44%	-16.7%
20%	+25.4%	33%	-24.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +88% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +164% → late +12% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$269

Realized+$5

Unrealized+$63

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses12 / 6

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage9d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown42%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	75¢	98¢	$200	$260	+$60 (+30%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Japan	59¢	86¢	$6	$9	+$3 (+45%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$71	+$7	+10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$40	−$23	-57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$36	+70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$17	+83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	−$23	-44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$22	+$3	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$30	+$22	+73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$26	+$16	+62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$50	+$12	+23%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$11	−$1	-10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1	+$1	+126%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$30	+$6	+20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$20	+$10	+48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1	+$15	+1420%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	59¢	$6	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	75¢	$22	3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	59¢	$56	3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	29¢	$17	8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$40	19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	95¢	$37	24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	26¢	$20	25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	39¢	$31	25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	21¢	$9	25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$22	30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$26	43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$30	43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$31	2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$2	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	91¢	$62	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$50	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$10	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	7¢	$2	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$1	3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$36	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$30	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.68 · official $268.68 (match) · 41 history records