Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4281…1a5a sports 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$761 (-10%) realized −$762 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%51W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$493
14 days−$888
30 days−$888
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$886
other 6% +$6
crypto 0% −$5
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -11.1% -19.6% 47% 43% -0.7%
≤30d 124 -21.8% -29.2% 41% 38% -20.0%
≤90d 124 -21.8% -29.2% 41% 38% -20.0%
all 124 -21.8% -29.2% 41% 38% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 38% -20.0%
10% -36.0% 32% -27.6%
15% -42.2% 29% -34.6%
20% -47.8% 25% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$37 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$762
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses51 / 73
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage12d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Rinky Hijikata 82¢ 82¢ $241 $243 +$1 (+1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Minnesota Twins 45¢ 44¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Jun 29 $71 −$58 -82%
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito Jun 29 $15 −$14 -99%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 29 $351 −$65 -19%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $146 +$5 +4%
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Jun 29 $351 +$42 +12%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 29 $112 +$156 +140%
Wimbledon ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Tommy Paul Jun 29 $351 +$22 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $20 +$9 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $40 +$12 +30%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Jun 27 $62 +$45 +73%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 27 $353 −$6 -2%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $72 +$13 +18%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $246 +$248 +101%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $153 +$289 +188%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $18 +$12 +65%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $252 +$61 +24%
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $158 +$43 +28%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $19 +$30 +159%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $151 +$94 +62%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 25 $27 −$16 -58%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Dali Blanch Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +15%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Will England win? Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $5 +$4 +80%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina Jun 24 $123 +$46 +37%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina Jun 24 $151 −$46 -30%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek Jun 24 $152 −$5 -3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $150 +$96 +64%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jun 24 $152 −$5 -3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $28 −$27 -99%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $81 −$80 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $63 −$62 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $50 +$35 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $14 +$2 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 23 $58 −$2 -3%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $269 +$133 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $254 −$9 -3%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $7 $0 -3%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $105 −$103 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $8 28m
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 82¢ $61 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 82¢ $61 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 82¢ $55 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 82¢ $6 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 82¢ $61 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Solana Sierra 55¢ $7 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 42¢ $64 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 56¢ $15 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $45 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $21 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 65¢ $123 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 64¢ $37 2d
Wimbledon ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 94¢ $351 2d
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic $1 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 89¢ $68 2d
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 96¢ $19 2d
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 96¢ $127 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 25¢ $36 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 89¢ $283 2d
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 50¢ $10 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 65¢ $61 2d
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 61¢ $20 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 66¢ $61 2d
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Farman Hasanov 60¢ $19 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 70¢ $347 2d
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, SELL Abus Magomedov 48¢ $9 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 70¢ $353 2d
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 68¢ $64 2d
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 84¢ $72 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.68 · official $250.68 (match) · 283 history records