Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x427c…9517 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$157 (-5%) realized −$156 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$1,500
14 days−$1,500
30 days−$1,500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$149
other 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -83.4% -85.0% 6% 6% -90.9%
≤30d 36 -83.4% -85.0% 6% 6% -90.9%
≤90d 36 -83.4% -85.0% 6% 6% -90.9%
all 62 -3.1% -12.4% 44% 44% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 44% -14.0%
10% -20.8% 44% -22.2%
15% -28.4% 39% -29.7%
20% -35.4% 34% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late -81% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$48 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$156
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage228d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$40 +197%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$19 -93%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -70%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca G Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Feb 16 $170 +$85 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 15 $20 +$27 +133%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 14 $100 +$47 +47%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Jan 28 $80 +$266 +333%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playof Jan 25 $140 +$125 +89%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 25 $153 +$56 +37%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $80 +$110 +138%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $60 +$84 +139%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $20 +$57 +285%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Dec 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 07 $40 +$21 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 06 $67 +$59 +88%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Dec 03 $28 +$58 +205%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO1) Nov 29 $20 +$17 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 42h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 4¢ $1 2d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 2d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 2¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag BUY PARIVISION 28¢ $100 120d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY FaZe 41¢ $100 120d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $20 120d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $254 121d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $170 121d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY MOUZ 8¢ $10 121d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY MOUZ 5¢ $10 121d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY B8 40¢ $100 121d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group BUY Astralis 7¢ $20 121d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group BUY Astralis 8¢ $20 121d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 43¢ $20 123d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta BUY FaZe 28¢ $20 123d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $20 123d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $20 123d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $20 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.73 · official $58.73 (match) · 148 history records