trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +15.7% | +4.7% | 89% | 67% | +4.2% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +15.9% | +4.9% | 90% | 70% | +4.6% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +7.8% | -2.5% | 77% | 54% | -4.4% |
| all | 13 | +7.8% | -2.5% | 77% | 54% | -4.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.5% | 54% | -4.4% |
| 10% | -11.8% | 31% | -13.6% |
| 15% | -20.4% | 23% | -21.9% |
| 20% | -28.2% | 15% | -29.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 88¢ | $205 | $220 | +$15 (+7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | Jun 24 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $30 | +$3 | +10% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $19 | +$11 | +55% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 22 | $27 | +$4 | +16% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $18 | +$2 | +12% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 21 | $12 | +$8 | +67% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 21 | $14 | +$6 | +48% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $92 | +$8 | +8% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 18 | $180 | +$46 | +26% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 28 | $61 | +$11 | +18% |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi | May 14 | $63 | −$23 | -37% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 14 | $63 | −$14 | -23% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 07 | $60 | +$1 | +2% |