Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x427a…f57f
crypto · 13 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$6
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 1 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner T1 49¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% +$2
crypto 37% $0
other 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $6 19m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 52¢ $6 19m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 71¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 53m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 79¢ $17 56m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.4% -20.8% 50% 25% -6.6%
≤30d 12 -12.4% -20.8% 50% 25% -6.6%
≤90d 12 -12.4% -20.8% 50% 25% -6.6%
all 12 -12.4% -20.8% 50% 25% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 25% -6.6%
10% -28.4% 17% -15.5%
15% -35.3% 0% -23.7%
20% -41.6% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.62 · official $5.62 (match) · 42 history records