Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:37:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x427a…4e18 crypto 634 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,371 (+13%) realized +$1,377 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate72%453W / 178L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days+$344
14 days+$913
30 days+$1,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$36
sports 36% +$1,143
weather 7% −$58
other 4% +$2
world 1% +$141
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 608 -2.4% -11.7% 72% 17% -5.8%
≤30d 621 -1.2% -10.6% 73% 18% +0.0%
≤90d 622 -1.0% -10.4% 73% 18% +1.3%
all 631 -1.8% -11.1% 72% 18% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 18% +0.7%
10% -19.6% 11% -9.0%
15% -27.4% 8% -17.8%
20% -34.5% 4% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,377
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses453 / 178
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions3
Markets (closed)631 / 634
History coverage105d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 631 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? No 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? No 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 19? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 21 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $18 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 1489 history records