Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4278…625f
weather · 674 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,444 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,444 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,412
Realized+$2,444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses644 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)651 / 674
History coverage9d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day312.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 26 History 651 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$153
14 days+$2,444
30 days+$2,444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $809 $809 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $737 $737 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $588 $589 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $442 $442 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $132 $132 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $122 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? No 97¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? No 95¢ 95¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? No 95¢ 96¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on May Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $292 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $304 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $2,966 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4,496 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,028 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2,886 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $209 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $375 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2,253 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2,985 +$15 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1,055 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2,877 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $233 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $593 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$2,506
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 0m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 1m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 5m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 7m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 55m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $61 57m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $524 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $649 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $153 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 513 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 651 +7.0% -3.2% 99% 1% -8.9%
≤90d 651 +7.0% -3.2% 99% 1% -8.9%
all 651 +7.0% -3.2% 99% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover312.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 1% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.5% 1% -17.6%
15% -20.9% 1% -25.6%
20% -28.7% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,412.32 · official $3,412.32 (match) · 3500 history records