Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:02:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4274…16fe crypto 1570 markets active 3h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$968 (-2%) realized −$966 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%857W / 720L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$52
14 days−$247
30 days−$1,213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,923
other 1% +$251
sports 0% −$78
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -53.8% -58.2% 25% 25% -6.0%
≤30d 347 -10.2% -18.8% 52% 48% -15.3%
≤90d 1412 -5.1% -14.2% 53% 50% -14.4%
all 1577 -3.2% -12.4% 54% 51% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 51% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 46% -22.2%
15% -28.5% 40% -29.7%
20% -35.5% 32% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$24 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$966
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses857 / 720
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1577 / 1570
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 280 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$32 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 +$116 +38%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $71 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $299 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $229 +$135 +59%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $64 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$79 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $202 +$61 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $99 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12AM ET Jun 02 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $77 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $111 +$69 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $102 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 01 $405 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $91 +$73 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 01 $163 −$78 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 01 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1AM ET Jun 01 $217 −$210 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 01 $25 −$13 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $51 −$46 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $36 +$50 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 01 $17 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $389 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 66¢ $29 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $344 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $299 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 9h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $363 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 10h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $61 10h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $64 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $168 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $17 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $29 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.33 · official $8.33 (match) · 3500 history records