Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4273…8c94
crypto · 1334 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$244 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$218 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$218
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses986 / 337
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1323 / 1334
History coverage147d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 11 History 1323 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$27
14 days−$34
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 75¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? No 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? No 63¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? No 73¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? No 72¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 76¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 49¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? No 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? No 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 10 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $32 −$2 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 04 $1 $0 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$145
weather 13% −$65
other 3% −$10
world 1% −$2
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 32h
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 48¢ $10 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -28.8% -35.6% 39% 39% -28.1%
≤30d 163 -16.8% -24.8% 51% 45% -24.3%
≤90d 358 -17.7% -25.5% 47% 44% -24.6%
all 1323 -6.2% -15.1% 75% 37% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 37% -17.2%
10% -23.3% 23% -25.1%
15% -30.7% 12% -32.3%
20% -37.5% 7% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.77 · official $14.36 (match) · 3500 history records