Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
42 0x4272…4a17 crypto 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,273 (-6%) realized −$2,273 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%114W / 98L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$365
7 days−$484
14 days−$78
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,346
sports 15% −$39
other 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.4% -9.9% 48% 48% -21.2%
≤30d 42 +7.8% -2.5% 55% 55% -9.9%
≤90d 51 +8.6% -1.8% 53% 53% -9.9%
all 212 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 47% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 47% -14.6%
10% -20.2% 42% -22.8%
15% -27.9% 36% -30.3%
20% -34.9% 29% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$114 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses114 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 216
History coverage124d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND New Zealand vs. Jun 27 $155 +$69 +44%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $158 +$50 +32%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $224 −$66 -30%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $76 +$79 +103%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $187 +$120 +64%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $129 +$58 +45%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $73 +$56 +76%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $74 −$72 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $123 −$121 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $70 +$53 +75%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $113 −$111 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $287 −$245 -85%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $74 +$215 +291%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 22 $73 −$72 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $37 −$36 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $122 −$120 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $58 +$65 +112%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $201 −$143 -71%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $118 +$83 +70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $201 −$83 -41%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $496 −$295 -60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $269 −$265 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $464 +$301 +65%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $300 +$164 +55%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $258 +$174 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $172 +$87 +50%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $88 +$83 +94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $48 +$41 +86%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $57 −$10 -17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $35 +$23 +66%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $36 −$36 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $62 −$60 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $34 +$27 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $53 −$53 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $110 −$57 -52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $184 −$75 -41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $152 −$64 -42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $132 +$117 +89%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $89 +$43 +48%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $7 +$2 +31%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $49 +$39 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 +$14 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 04 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 04 $57 +$41 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 04 $154 −$94 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 04 $54 +$100 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 03 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 03 $41 −$32 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 03 $50 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 02 $23 +$27 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $208 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $158 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $158 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $224 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND New Zealand vs. SELL 44¢ $224 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND New Zealand vs. BUY 29¢ $155 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $76 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Türkiye vs. United S BUY 37¢ $303 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 88¢ $306 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $187 29h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $129 33h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $129 33h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $73 33h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Czechia vs BUY 34¢ $74 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY 19¢ $74 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Bosnia and Herzegovi BUY 17¢ $73 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $74 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $123 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $123 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $70 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $113 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over $42 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $287 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 25¢ $74 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $73 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $37 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $122 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $122 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $58 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 15¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 489 history records