Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4272…2df9 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$11
politics 38% −$13
sports 10% −$9
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 114 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 141 +2.9% -6.9% 5% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 2% -9.7%
10% -15.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -24.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -31.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×10.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 134
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage128d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $189 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $160 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $158 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $136 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 24 $117 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $136 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $285 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $120 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $291 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $321 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $119 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 11 $413 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $268 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $133 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $169 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $139 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $136 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 04 $117 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $266 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $127 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $157 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $149 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $122 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $294 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $121 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $134 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $146 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $283 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 17d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 18d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 18d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $160 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $160 22d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 22d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $158 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $136 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $136 25d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $123 25d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $123 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $117 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $117 26d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $145 27d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $145 27d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $142 27d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $142 27d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $136 27d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $136 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $171 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $171 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $162 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 428 history records