Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4270…6168
sports · 531 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$288 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$318 · open −$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$474
Realized+$318
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses231 / 264
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions36
Markets (closed)495 / 531
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1016.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 36 History 495 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days+$318
14 days+$318
30 days+$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 79¢ 84¢ $45 $47 +$3 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 55¢ 100¢ $25 $45 +$20 (+82%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 84¢ 86¢ $33 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Switzerland 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Scotland 81¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner HEROIC Academy 42¢ 68¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+62%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Afghanistan 28¢ 8¢ $52 $16 −$36 (-69%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Team WE 43¢ 100¢ $7 $16 +$9 (+130%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Austria 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Knicks 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Germany 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 71¢ 72¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Spurs 82¢ 76¢ $16 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 22¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 76¢ 56¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage HEROIC Academy 31¢ 44¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Portugal leading at halftime? No 43¢ 43¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 5¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Bilibili Gaming 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 75¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $15 −$4 -26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $45 −$20 -44%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $15 +$2 +15%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Saab - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$4 +13%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $28 −$22 -79%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $67 −$50 -74%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $105 −$25 -24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $37 −$6 -17%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $7 +$2 +21%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $12 −$9 -80%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $27 +$4 +13%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $90 +$77 +85%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 13 $2 +$6 +316%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $8 +$8 +93%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$13 +262%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $37 −$12 -34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $33 −$28 -85%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$7 +146%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$6 +59%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$6 +129%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $13 −$5 -34%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $12 +$33 +273%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 −$3 -34%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $25 +$5 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$3 +124%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$9 +59%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $13 +$15 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$391
crypto 33% +$866
other 5% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 45¢ $5 28m
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 45¢ $5 28m
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 37¢ $5 29m
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY RUSTEC 76¢ $5 35m
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY RUSTEC 76¢ $5 35m
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY aimclub 20¢ $2 36m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $2 40m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $5 43m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 97¢ $5 45m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $5 52m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 14¢ $5 55m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $5 56m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $5 56m
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 24¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 24¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY HEROIC Academy 31¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY aimclub 26¢ $5 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 26¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $5 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 75¢ $5 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 25¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 79¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 76¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 76¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $5 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 80¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 84¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 495 +9.9% -0.6% 47% 36% -6.3%
≤30d 495 +9.9% -0.6% 47% 36% -6.3%
≤90d 495 +9.9% -0.6% 47% 36% -6.3%
all 495 +9.9% -0.6% 47% 36% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1016.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.6% 36% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.1% 29% -15.3%
15% -18.8% 22% -23.5%
20% -26.7% 18% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $474.29 · official $474.29 (match) · 3500 history records