Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4270…d531 crypto 1609 markets active 3h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$345 (+5%) realized +$345 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate88%1418W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day70.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$10
14 days+$24
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$26
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 265 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 32% -8.8%
≤30d 1608 +0.4% -9.2% 88% 35% -9.2%
≤90d 1608 +0.4% -9.2% 88% 35% -9.2%
all 1608 +0.4% -9.2% 88% 35% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 35% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 11% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 3% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$345
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1418 / 190
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1608 / 1609
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day70.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1608 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records