Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x426e…583e
crypto · 9 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.9% -21.2% 56% 44% -15.4%
≤30d 9 -12.9% -21.2% 56% 44% -15.4%
≤90d 9 -12.9% -21.2% 56% 44% -15.4%
all 9 -12.9% -21.2% 56% 44% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 44% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 11% -23.5%
15% -35.6% 0% -30.9%
20% -41.9% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records