Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x426d…6885 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,943 (+8%) realized +$1,963 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$1,247per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$1,345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$1,213
sports 3% −$12
crypto 2% +$300
world 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +10.2% -0.3% 56% 44% -3.5%
≤30d 16 +10.2% -0.3% 56% 44% -3.5%
≤90d 16 +10.2% -0.3% 56% 44% -3.5%
all 16 +10.2% -0.3% 56% 44% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 44% -3.5%
10% -9.9% 38% -12.7%
15% -18.6% 31% -21.2%
20% -26.6% 25% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$497 vs −$428 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,345
Realized+$1,963
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,247
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $615 $608 −$7 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $500 $493 −$6 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $250 $244 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,871 −$81 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4,291 −$604 -14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,306 +$1,736 +133%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,482 +$73 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,054 +$428 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $258 −$258 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$39 -38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,310 −$129 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,357 +$225 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,726 +$631 +37%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,780 −$1,780 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,656 +$563 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $438 +$300 +68%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $167 +$266 +159%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $398 +$254 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $629 55m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $257 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $511 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $1,789 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,871 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 73¢ $3,687 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $4,291 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,306 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $2,555 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,482 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $2,482 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,054 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 8¢ $64 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $1,181 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $258 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,310 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,583 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,357 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,357 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,726 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,780 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $738 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $738 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $438 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $438 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $918 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $433 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 34¢ $167 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,344.69 · official $1,344.69 (match) · 37 history records