Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
42 0x426d…b645 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate27%15W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 83% −$14
politics 10% −$7
other 5% +$4
sports 2% −$36
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +45.8% +31.9% 50% 50% +15.7%
≤30d 16 +15.1% +4.1% 25% 19% -3.5%
≤90d 45 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 20% -11.6%
all 56 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 16% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 16% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 16% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 16% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 12% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses15 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage601d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $6 +$5 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $6 +$6 +101%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $63 $0 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 18 $11 +$6 +60%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$5 +60%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $58 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$4 +48%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 +$8 +108%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $19 +$9 +50%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 01 $20 +$20 +96%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Capitals vs. Blues Mar 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 25 $22 $0 +0%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 24 $22 +$14 +63%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $13,572 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 56m
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $6 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $6 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 11d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $13 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $28 24d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.10 · official $68.10 (match) · 239 history records