Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
42 0x426c…bdf1 other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,417 (-1%) realized −$1,414 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,191per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$85
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$1,411
politics 34% −$67
sports 4% +$48
economics 3% −$3
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$2
tech 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 +0.4% -9.1% 14% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 105 +3.4% -6.4% 11% 9% -10.6%
all 105 +3.4% -6.4% 11% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 9% -10.6%
10% -15.4% 8% -19.1%
15% -23.6% 7% -26.9%
20% -31.1% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,626) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$19 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$829
Realized−$1,414
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage82d
Avg bet$1,191
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $548 $548 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $284 $281 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,109 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,743 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $6,025 −$6 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $483 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,648 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $654 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $797 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,201 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $781 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $74 +$59 +79%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $328 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $408 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,392 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $2,385 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $549 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,217 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $62 +$35 +57%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $244 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $612 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $616 −$1 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $617 −$1 -0%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $53 +$50 +93%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $2,098 −$2 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $531 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $519 −$1 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $70 +$65 +93%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 12 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,152 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,050 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,135 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,151 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $568 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,282 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $548 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $499 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $500 3h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $474 21h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $474 24h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $476 43h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $476 46h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $493 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $493 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $483 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $483 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $284 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $675 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $676 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $726 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $727 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $644 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $645 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $671 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $672 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $707 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $708 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $651 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $652 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $653 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $654 10d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $756 10d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $756 11d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $796 11d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $797 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $828.85 · official $828.85 (match) · 325 history records