Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x426c…8fe7 crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$270 (-7%) realized −$285 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 189d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$213
sports 16% −$251
other 7% −$163
world 1% −$5
economics 1% −$18
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -42.8% -48.3% 36% 21% -27.8%
≤30d 43 -43.3% -48.7% 35% 21% -29.0%
≤90d 43 -43.3% -48.7% 35% 21% -29.0%
all 52 -36.2% -42.2% 37% 21% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 21% -27.1%
10% -47.8% 15% -34.1%
15% -52.8% 8% -40.5%
20% -57.4% 4% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$285
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage189d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 0¢ 48¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$31 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $66 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $206 −$174 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $315 −$112 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $138 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $519 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $190 −$44 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $207 +$8 +4%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Predators Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Jun 25 $298 −$110 -37%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $227 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Devils vs. Golden Knights Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $70 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $235 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $215 +$56 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +41%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $27 −$19 -70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$62 -61%
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens Dec 18 $80 +$10 +12%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Dec 18 $58 +$13 +23%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 18 $8 $0 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Dec 18 $10 −$1 -14%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Dec 18 $45 −$4 -8%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 18 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $101 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $90 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $101 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $108 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $105 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $73 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $79 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $63 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $206 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $19 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $111 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $204 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $204 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $169 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $134 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $31 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $41 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $59 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $116 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $118 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $317 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $308 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $47 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.10 · official $1.00 · 183 history records