Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x426a…51c1 other 639 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$255 (-8%) realized −$245 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%293W / 341L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$102
14 days+$102
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$128
sports 12% −$129
crypto 9% −$19
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +26.2% +14.2% 79% 76% +17.5%
≤30d 35 +22.6% +10.9% 77% 74% +12.4%
≤90d 343 -17.7% -25.5% 46% 44% -21.1%
all 634 -9.1% -17.7% 46% 44% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 44% -17.3%
10% -25.6% 41% -25.3%
15% -32.8% 34% -32.5%
20% -39.4% 28% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$245
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses293 / 341
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)634 / 639
History coverage204d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 634 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $55 $46 −$10 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 57¢ 56¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $31 +$20 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$7 +33%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $17 +$15 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 27 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $18 +$16 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $4 +$6 +141%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 +$1 +51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 Jun 26 $1 +$3 +305%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 +$3 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +17%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 23 $12 +$6 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 $0 +8%
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 23 $26 +$8 +30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +46%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $16 −$15 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 57¢ $35 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 34¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL No 71¢ $50 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $31 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 42¢ $31 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $10 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 78¢ $32 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 75¢ $10 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 42¢ $2 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 42¢ $5 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN SELL 2¢ $0 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 75¢ $34 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 21¢ $3 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 8¢ $2 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $10 34h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 39¢ $10 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 35h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $10 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 67¢ $10 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 41¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.64 · official $139.64 (match) · 1501 history records