Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4266…5305 other 109 markets active 18h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9,117 (-2%) realized −$9,461 · open +$344
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate46%49W / 57L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,435per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$60,512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,129
7 days−$1,349
14 days−$1,311
30 days−$7,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 69% −$9,257
other 11% −$3,032
world 8% +$1,180
crypto 4% +$67
sports 3% +$257
politics 3% −$199
weather 1% −$13
economics 1% −$180
culture 0% +$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.3% -17.9% 29% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 25 -15.2% -23.3% 36% 8% -14.3%
≤90d 42 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 10% -13.3%
all 106 -14.3% -22.5% 46% 11% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 11% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 8% -20.4%
15% -36.7% 4% -28.0%
20% -42.9% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,143) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$349 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$60,512
Realized−$9,461
Unrealized+$344
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses49 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage698d
Avg bet$4,435
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $53,945 $53,881 −$64 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $6,110 $6,623 +$513 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes $113 $8 −$105 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4,952 +$180 +4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15,088 −$1,510 -10%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,774 −$89 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 15 $231 −$115 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8,210 +$406 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,162 −$220 -10%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $345 −$13 -4%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $306 −$176 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $41 −$21 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $119 −$74 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $234 +$76 +32%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 06 $92 −$33 -36%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $8,725 +$280 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $219 −$98 -45%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,065 +$364 +12%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,033 +$70 +1%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2,448 +$196 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $82,434 −$6,349 -8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,344 −$43 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,460 −$846 -58%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $1,002 −$3 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $2,753 +$246 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $266 +$8 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2,987 −$85 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 05 $775 −$100 -13%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $65,605 +$1,863 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $557 −$166 -30%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 24 $1,768 −$59 -3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $23,620 −$6,814 -29%
Trump out as President by June 30? Apr 20 $228 −$80 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 16 $207 −$123 -59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $30 −$26 -88%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Apr 09 $2,143 −$127 -6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Wildcard - Map 1 Winner Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 01 $120 −$3 -3%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 01 $66 −$33 -50%
Bucks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $184 −$87 -48%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $48,036 +$959 +2%
Pistons vs. 76ers Mar 31 $10 $0 -3%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 23 $678 +$151 +22%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 22 $110 +$115 +105%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ja Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 15 $336 −$47 -14%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $16,398 +$741 +4%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 09 $7,175 +$270 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $35,914 +$495 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $2,925 +$248 +8%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $622 +$39 +6%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $260 −$11 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $391 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $2,680 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $60 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $68 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $4,023 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,989 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4,370 20h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $4,808 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,685 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $9,400 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL No $116 38h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $4,306 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $1,082 40h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $470 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No $231 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,319 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $123 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $882 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $71 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $71 46h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $113 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $94 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $13 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,900 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,941 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,162 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,307 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,378 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60,512.11 · official $60,512.11 (match) · 1090 history records