Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4266…0e08 sports 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,347 (-1%) realized −$2,433 · open +$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%67W / 230L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$780per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$223est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$1,089
14 days−$1,089
30 days−$1,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$9,159
politics 24% +$33,592
crypto 19% −$21,361
sports 9% −$3,798
finance 3% −$1,314
world 3% −$23
tech 0% −$188
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -34.3% -40.6% 10% 5% -34.7%
≤30d 42 -37.4% -43.4% 10% 5% -37.2%
≤90d 197 -30.7% -37.3% 19% 15% -23.5%
all 297 -24.7% -31.8% 23% 19% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 19% -10.4%
10% -38.4% 15% -19.0%
15% -44.3% 14% -26.8%
20% -49.8% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,118 vs −$336 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$587
Realized−$2,433
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses67 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$223
Open positions3
Markets (closed)297 / 301
History coverage230d
Avg bet$780
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $401 $475 +$74 (+18%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $80 $105 +$25 (+31%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $212 −$170 -80%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $24 +$155 +654%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $18 +$162 +874%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $353 −$49 -14%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $19 −$3 -17%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $83 −$81 -98%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,003 +$12 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 −$30 -15%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $425 −$28 -7%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $50 −$48 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $196 −$194 -99%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$79 -76%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $23 −$12 -53%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 12 $26 −$11 -43%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 −$4 -17%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $75 −$63 -85%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $68 −$66 -97%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? Apr 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 18 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Real Sociedad win Copa Del Rey? Apr 18 $408 +$215 +53%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,781 +$60 +3%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 18 $2,000 −$857 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $2,203 +$819 +37%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $3,655 −$660 -18%
Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5) Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $82 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 0¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $36 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 45¢ $126 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 4¢ $12 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 19¢ $53 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $24 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 21h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 19¢ $304 21h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $220 24h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 30h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 32h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 32h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $102 33h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 33h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $31 33h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $82 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $83 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $587.34 · official $586.51 (match) · 1289 history records