Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4266…fbb0 politics 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%5W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$1
politics 30% −$3
sports 20% −$2
culture 7% −$1
world 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 0% -8.8%
all 72 -6.1% -15.1% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses5 / 67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage380d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 36¢ 37¢ $78 $81 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $80 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $78 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $79 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 12 $158 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $155 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $79 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $159 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $78 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $3 $0 -13%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $2 $0 -14%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 08 $1 $0 -40%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $166 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $81 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 03 $84 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $167 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Sep 28 $84 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 26 $2 $0 -17%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Sep 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $82 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 36¢ $80 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $78 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $77 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $78 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $78 25d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 107d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 128d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $78 133d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $78 137d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 138d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 147d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 148d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $75 150d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 150d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 151d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 151d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 152d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $78 152d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $79 157d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $80 158d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $80 160d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $76 161d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $76 163d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $79 164d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $79 168d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 169d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 171d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $79 171d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $79 173d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.55 · official $80.55 (match) · 299 history records