Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x4266…ffac weather 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fading edge
Total PnL +$563 (+11%) realized +$815 · open −$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days−$94
14 days+$213
30 days+$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% −$197
world 17% +$319
other 7% +$49
tech 6% +$65
crypto 1% +$7
finance 1% +$2
sports 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+61.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -41.8% -47.3% 44% 44% -12.8%
≤30d 25 +98.9% +80.0% 60% 56% -1.6%
≤90d 31 +81.0% +63.8% 65% 58% -1.5%
all 32 +78.7% +61.7% 66% 56% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.7% 56% -1.5%
10% +46.2% 47% -11.0%
15% +32.1% 28% -19.6%
20% +19.1% 19% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +159% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$102 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$815
Unrealized−$252
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage160d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Yes 86¢ 23¢ $357 $96 −$261 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? No 80¢ 90¢ $83 $94 +$11 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? No 62¢ 56¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $401 +$148 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $427 +$190 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $486 +$114 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $261 −$261 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $587 +$112 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $0 $0 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $107 +$31 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $228 +$69 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $152 +$48 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$53 +114%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $231 +$169 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $204 +$96 +47%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 +$44 +809%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $4 −$3 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $555 +$55 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $19 +$511 +2645%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $23 +$7 +28%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 23 $37 +$6 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 09 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 09 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 09 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $4 −$4 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $29 +$2 +9%
Will EA say "Acquisition" during earnings call? Jan 13 $30 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 92¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 87¢ $263 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $56 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $27 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $173 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $65 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.61 · official $206.61 (match) · 251 history records