Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

42 0x4265…851f other 22 markets active 1d ago coverage 30d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$1,656 (+12%) realized −$1,408 · open +$3,064

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%6W / 14L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$632per market

Trades / day17.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$3,064now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)+14.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+125.2%	+103.7%	75%	75%	+115.5%
≤30d	19	+27.7%	+15.5%	32%	32%	-0.5%
≤90d	20	+26.3%	+14.3%	30%	30%	-0.5%
all	20	+26.3%	+14.3%	30%	30%	-0.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.3%	30%	-0.5%
10%	+3.3%	30%	-10.1%
15%	-6.7%	25%	-18.7%
20%	-15.8%	25%	-26.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$608) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +5% → late +48% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

18.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$786 vs −$386 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.22 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage

Net worth$3,064

Realized−$1,408

Unrealized+$3,064

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses6 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage30d

Avg bet$632

Trades / day17.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	0¢	52¢	$0	$2,174	+$2,174 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	0¢	44¢	$0	$890	+$890 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 19	$1,301	+$825	+63%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 16	$1,086	$0	+0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$584	+$1,789	+306%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$95	+$124	+131%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 14	$930	−$835	-90%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$1,612	$0	+0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$407	+$708	+174%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$695	+$203	+29%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$1,575	−$896	-57%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 07	$390	−$315	-81%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 07	$608	−$604	-99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Jun 05	$207	+$1,068	+515%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Jun 05	$121	−$102	-84%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Jun 04	$215	−$132	-61%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	May 29	$267	−$63	-23%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	May 28	$428	$0	+0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	May 28	$231	−$5	-2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	May 26	$460	−$455	-99%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	May 26	$479	−$459	-96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	May 22	$58	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	53¢	$5	34h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	54¢	$48	35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	54¢	$93	35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	54¢	$37	35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	54¢	$25	35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	53¢	$3	35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	53¢	$38	35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	53¢	$3	35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	53¢	$13	36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	53¢	$2	36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$108	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$108	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$28	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$22	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$13	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$67	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$9	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$3	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$8	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$21	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$26	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$26	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$52	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$27	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$53	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$29	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$26	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$7	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,064.34 · official $3,021.51 · 541 history records