Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4263…a5d9 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$1
world 24% −$3
politics 16% $0
finance 13% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 6% +$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 6 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 0% -10.7%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.2% 3% -18.6%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage294d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $37 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $33 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $16 −$3 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 04 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 23 $8 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Sep 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 10 $2 $0 +23%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $4 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $13 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $19 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $37 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $37 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $3 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $31 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $33 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $16 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $16 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 25d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $8 194d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 100¢ $31 195d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $8 237d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? SELL No 95¢ $8 237d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 96¢ $8 237d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 97¢ $30 279d
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? SELL No 94¢ $30 279d
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? BUY No 94¢ $30 279d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 279d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 280d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.25 · official $36.25 (match) · 89 history records