Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x425e…d497 world 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%38W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$7
other 23% −$4
politics 15% +$6
sports 8% −$11
economics 5% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.7% -11.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 34 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 70 +0.5% -9.1% 37% 3% -9.3%
all 92 -2.9% -12.2% 41% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 7% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 5% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses38 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage532d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $114 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $76 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $6 −$1 -25%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $158 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $152 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 01 $37 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $6 +$3 +49%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $37 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $36 +$2 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $47 +$3 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $103 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $44 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $44 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $29 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $14 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $44 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $44 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $5 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $18 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.00 (match) · 337 history records