Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x425d…f1a0 other 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$24
14 days−$32
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$38
sports 25% −$24
politics 8% −$7
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 1% -9.7%
all 246 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage136d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $687 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $305 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $693 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $196 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $337 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $447 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $554 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $402 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $448 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $307 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $700 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $288 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $427 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $766 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 5h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 7h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 7h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 15h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 15h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $45 17h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 19h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 19h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 20h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 21h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 21h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 24h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 26h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 30h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 32h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 33h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 35h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 36h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 38h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 42h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $62 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 45h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 47h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.33 · official $60.36 (match) · 1406 history records