trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 44% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 44% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 29 | -5.2% | -14.2% | 66% | 0% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.2% | 0% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -22.4% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -29.9% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -36.8% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 76¢ | $47 | $47 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 03 | $4 | $0 | -4% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 03 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $14 | $0 | -2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 02 | $46 | +$1 | +3% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 01 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 27 | $29 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 26 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? | Apr 06 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | Apr 05 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 05 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? | Apr 03 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? | Mar 30 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Canada election called by Sunday? | Mar 24 | $14 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we | Mar 18 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $13 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? | Mar 13 | $11 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 12 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 12 | $4 | −$4 | -88% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 11 | $13 | $0 | +0% |