Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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42 0x425c…557d crypto 1364 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate87%1186W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +5.3% -4.7% 92% 18% -5.1%
≤30d 51 +5.3% -4.7% 92% 18% -5.1%
≤90d 532 -7.7% -16.5% 70% 11% -9.3%
all 1363 -2.5% -11.8% 87% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 5% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1186 / 177
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1363 / 1364
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $86 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $67 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $39 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $70 +$6 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$4 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$12 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $42 +$7 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $24 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $12 +$5 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $41 +$4 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $42 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $37 −$36 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $129 +$8 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $48 +$3 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $49 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$3 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $78 +$4 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $49 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $116 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $75 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $55 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $42 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $90 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $76 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.95 · official $4.95 (match) · 3500 history records