Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x425a…c41e other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$153 (+23%) realized +$155 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$134
sports 6% +$19
world 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +9.2% -1.2% 57% 57% +19.0%
≤30d 14 +9.2% -1.2% 57% 57% +19.0%
≤90d 14 +9.2% -1.2% 57% 57% +19.0%
all 14 +9.2% -1.2% 57% 57% +19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 57% +19.0%
10% -10.7% 50% +7.6%
15% -19.3% 36% -2.8%
20% -27.2% 14% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$8 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$18 +354%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $70 +$10 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$48 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 28h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 31h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $23 37h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 38h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 92¢ $148 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $70 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $81 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $70 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.91 · official $197.93 (match) · 34 history records