Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4258…cb4e
other · 35 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage385d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $19 −$2 -9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Dec 17 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Dec 14 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi Jun 06 $9 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 04 $27 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will X buy TikTok? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 02 $3 $0 -2%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
2025 May hottest on record? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 24 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% −$2
other 31% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 7% −$3
economics 6% $0
culture 5% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $38 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $39 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $2 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $35 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $37 17h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $1 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $43 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $43 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $45 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $45 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 10 -2.9% -12.2% 40% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 10 -2.9% -12.2% 40% 0% -10.2%
all 34 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -10.2%
10% -20.3% 3% -18.8%
15% -28.0% 3% -26.6%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.85 · official $17.85 (match) · 100 history records