Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4255…434e other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$223 (-13%) realized −$188 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$164
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$20
other 33% +$12
sports 16% −$217
politics 1% −$13
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 19 -29.4% -36.1% 32% 32% -56.9%
all 19 -29.4% -36.1% 32% 32% -56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 32% -56.9%
10% -42.2% 26% -61.0%
15% -47.8% 21% -64.8%
20% -52.9% 16% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,146
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)19 / 27
History coverage75d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $778 $771 −$7 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $285 $303 +$18 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $7 −$22 (-75%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $4 −$19 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $168 −$164 -98%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-09? May 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 09 $12 +$9 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $5 +$7 +138%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 28 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 28 $17 −$13 -81%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 14 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $25 +$61 +244%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $800 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $271 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $105 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $168 11d
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $22 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 49d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 57d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $2 57d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $3 57d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 71d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL Yes 77¢ $17 71d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY No 16¢ $14 71d
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 71d
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 71d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $10 71d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $8 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 72d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 41¢ $25 72d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,146.49 · official $1,146.49 (match) · 129 history records