Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4255…bd40
crypto · 13 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.5% -4.6% 58% 58% -16.2%
≤30d 12 +5.5% -4.6% 58% 58% -16.2%
≤90d 12 +5.5% -4.6% 58% 58% -16.2%
all 12 +5.5% -4.6% 58% 58% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 58% -16.2%
10% -13.7% 50% -24.2%
15% -22.1% 42% -31.5%
20% -29.7% 33% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $1.11 (match) · 33 history records