Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
42 0x4253…405e weather 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%141W / 5L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$9
14 days+$11
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$10
crypto 3% +$2
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 1% -9.3%
≤30d 146 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 146 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.3%
all 146 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×66.95 per $1 lost it wins $66.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses141 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage19d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? Jun 26 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 25? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 25? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $214 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? Jun 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? Jun 24 $75 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $151 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $267 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on June 24? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C or below on June 23? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $46 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $40 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $38 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $44 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $14 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $14 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $17 21h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $13 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 482 history records