Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4252…cfa9 crypto 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$18 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate79%112W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$20
crypto 24% −$6
sports 19% +$15
other 13% +$5
world 3% −$22
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 14 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 7% -7.6%
≤90d 43 +1.7% -8.0% 86% 26% -8.7%
all 142 -1.7% -11.1% 79% 20% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 20% -8.8%
10% -19.6% 11% -17.5%
15% -27.3% 3% -25.5%
20% -34.5% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses112 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)142 / 144
History coverage114d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during his next gaming YouTube video? Yes 100¢ 95¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will MrBeast say "Roblox" during his next gaming YouTube video? No 98¢ 80¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Netherlands Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $42 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 20 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA Jun 18 $41 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Butterfly" during UFC 250? Jun 18 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 18 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Danger" this week? Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Generation" this week? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Low Energy" this week? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" this week? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Chicken" in May? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? Jun 01 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump or Melania say "Six Seven" at the Military Mothers event? May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "NFL" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experienc May 06 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Peacemaker" this week? (April 27 - May 3) May 04 $8 +$3 +31%
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" this week? (April 27 - May 3 May 04 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Trump say "Harry" this week? (April 27 - May 3) May 04 $17 +$1 +5%
Will MrBeast say "Insane" during his next video? May 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next video? May 02 $37 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during astronaut greeting? May 01 $36 +$1 +3%
Will "Fuck" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Pod Apr 26 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say "Gay" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21? Apr 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? (April 19) Apr 20 $34 +$1 +4%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Apr 05 $27 +$7 +25%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" at the rally on Satu Mar 28 $4 −$2 -42%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Mar 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Jesus" during National Agriculture Day events? Mar 27 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Mar 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (March 29) Mar 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during Cabinet meeting on Mar Mar 26 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Fostering th Mar 24 $8 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Cancer" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Trump say "Stupid" or "Idiot" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 7+ times during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $3 $0 +17%
Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 23 $43 −$22 -51%
Will Trump say "Affair" this week? (March 22) Mar 23 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Trump say "Nancy" or "Pelosi" this week? (March 22) Mar 23 $14 −$3 -23%
Will Trump say "Finish the Job" this week? (March 22) Mar 23 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Trump say "What's Up" this week? (March 22) Mar 23 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 22) Mar 23 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (March 22) Mar 22 $15 +$1 +10%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Mar 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Toyota" during events with Japanese PM? Mar 20 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Japanese" 10+ times during events with Japa Mar 19 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Honor" during events with Japanese PM? Mar 19 $28 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Mar 18 $37 −$10 -26%
Will Trump say "Medal of Honor" this week? (March 22) Mar 18 $36 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Netherlands BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will MrBeast say "Roblox" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY No 98¢ $12 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $42 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $42 2h
Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY No 99¢ $18 3h
Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY No 99¢ $14 3h
Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 4h
Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY No 98¢ $34 22h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA BUY Yes 99¢ $41 46h
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $24 4d
Will the announcers say "Butterfly" during UFC 250? BUY No 95¢ $6 5d
Will the announcers say "Butterfly" during UFC 250? BUY No 95¢ $10 5d
Will Trump say "Generation" this week? BUY No 98¢ $10 5d
Will Trump say "Danger" this week? BUY No 98¢ $8 5d
Will Trump say "Low Energy" this week? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" this week? BUY No 99¢ $9 12d
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? BUY No 87¢ $8 20d
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? BUY No 90¢ $9 20d
Will Trump say "Chicken" in May? BUY No 90¢ $9 20d
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? BUY No 95¢ $9 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 45d
Will Trump or Melania say "Six Seven" at the Military Mothers event? BUY No 78¢ $8 45d
Will "NFL" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experienc BUY No 98¢ $42 46d
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" this week? (April 27 - May 3 BUY No 97¢ $9 48d
Will Trump say "Harry" this week? (April 27 - May 3) BUY No 95¢ $17 48d
Will Trump say "Peacemaker" this week? (April 27 - May 3) BUY No 95¢ $1 48d
Will Trump say "Peacemaker" this week? (April 27 - May 3) BUY No 75¢ $1 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.71 · official $38.71 (match) · 382 history records