Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
42 0x4252…5db1 other 377 markets active 0h ago coverage 423d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$464 (+3%) realized +$529 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate59%217W / 153L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$246
14 days+$238
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$201
politics 31% +$78
world 14% +$207
sports 7% −$50
economics 5% +$26
tech 1% +$13
crypto 1% −$18
finance 0% +$3
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +27.3% +15.2% 82% 59% +20.3%
≤30d 35 +0.1% -9.5% 60% 37% -0.7%
≤90d 91 -6.5% -15.4% 59% 36% -4.5%
all 370 -6.1% -15.1% 59% 36% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 36% -6.5%
10% -23.2% 25% -15.4%
15% -30.6% 16% -23.6%
20% -37.4% 11% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

423d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized+$529
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses217 / 153
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)370 / 377
History coverage423d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $189 $192 +$3 (+1%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $41 $38 −$3 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $24 $14 −$10 (-42%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-29%)
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 63¢ 67¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 49¢ 4¢ $49 $4 −$46 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $102 −$14 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $43 +$19 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $99 +$79 +79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $23 +$33 +143%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $31 +$3 +10%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $53 +$23 +44%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $36 +$6 +17%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $93 +$86 +93%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$5 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $21 +$2 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $74 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $47 +$10 +20%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 11 $66 +$8 +12%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $85 +$4 +4%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7) Jun 09 $209 +$4 +2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $46 −$7 -15%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $33 +$10 +30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $51 −$5 -10%
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority? Jun 07 $26 −$21 -81%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 04 $229 −$17 -8%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 20 $174 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $40 +$25 +63%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $52 +$12 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 11, 2026? May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 08 $70 +$12 +18%
Will Nottingham Forest qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEF May 08 $291 −$20 -7%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026? May 05 $7 $0 -0%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 03 $201 −$66 -33%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 1, 2026? May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 03 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 03 $41 −$35 -85%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 29 $42 +$22 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor BUY Yes 98¢ $190 13m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $28 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $62 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 17h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY No 63¢ $4 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $178 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY No 63¢ $3 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $37 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 4d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $157 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $16 4d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $66 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.34 · official $282.34 (match) · 1440 history records